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Market sizing, or how to prove your idea is worth millions

In a world where innovation and entrepreneurship are flourishing, market research remains an essential step for any startup, SME, or firm wishing to assess the potential of its project. By 2025, investors, accelerators, and institutions (such as Bpifrance in Europe or Tamwilcom in Morocco) will pay particular attention to market sizing and a thorough understanding of the competition.


As Paul Graham (co-founder of Y Combinator) summarizes:

"Startups rarely fail because they can't build a product, but much more often because they build something that nobody wants."

Why is market research essential?


Market research is not simply about collecting figures. It is a strategic tool that:

  • Validate the request : is there a real need for your solution?

  • Identify the typical customers : who are they, what are their habits, their purchasing power?

  • Measure the competition : which companies are already present, and with what strengths/weaknesses?

  • Anticipate risks and opportunities : regulatory developments (e.g. EMA, ANSM in pharma), technological trends (generative AI, e-health, green tech).

  • It feeds into the business plan : market sizing lends credibility to your financial projections.


According to Bpifrance Création (2024) , "a serious market study reduces the risk of failure of an entrepreneurial project in its first three years by 50%" .



The steps to a successful market research study


1. Define your objective


The study is not the same if you are looking to validate an idea, prepare for a fundraising round or penetrate a new market.


2. Collect the data


  • Primary methods : surveys, customer interviews, focus groups, pilot tests.

  • Secondary sources : sector reports (Bpifrance, INSEE, Statista, WHO, Tamwilcom, Partech), academic articles.


As Roxanne Varza (Director of Station F) indicates:

"Nothing beats feedback from early adopters: your most valuable data isn't in a report, but in the conversations you have."

3. Segment the market


  • By customer profile (B2B, B2C, institutions).

  • By geographical area (Europe, Africa, global).

  • By behavior (premium, early adopters, mass market).


4. Perform market sizing


Use the TAM / SAM / SOM model:

  • TAM: global market size.

  • SAM: a truly addressable market.

  • SOM: share that you can capture within a 3-5 year horizon.


Exemple de metrics décrivant le marché sur lequel une entreprise opère
Exemple de metrics décrivant le marché sur lequel une entreprise opère

Concrete example (natural cosmetics in Morocco) :

  • TAM: €60 billion (global market).

  • SAM: €1 billion (Francophone Africa).

  • SOM: €50 million (young urban Moroccans).


5. Analyze the competition


A credible benchmark should show where you are most competitive (price, innovation, distribution).

According to Tidjane Deme (General Partner, Partech Africa) :

"Successful entrepreneurs are those who understand that their real competitor is not always who they imagine."

6. Interpreting trends


  • Technological : AI, connected health.

  • Societal : ethical, green products.

  • Regulatory : EMA, ANSM, GMP in pharma, African requirements.



Common mistakes to avoid


  1. Overestimating the market.

  2. Forget the barriers (regulatory, cultural).

  3. Simply copying figures without contextualizing them.

  4. Ignoring indirect competition.


Marc Andreessen (Andreessen Horowitz) recalls:

"Market size is the most important factor in a startup's success. A large team in a small market will fail."

Inspiring example


A project incubated by CcHub (Nigeria) in the field of e-health structured its market research as follows:

  • TAM: African digital health market estimated at $5 billion.

  • SAM: $500M on West Africa.

  • SOM: $10M targeted across 3 countries with high mobile penetration. Result: successful fundraising from Flat6Labs and local investors.



Overview of a modern office with a laptop and strategy notes
Vue d'ensemble d'un bureau moderne avec un ordinateur portable et des notes de stratégie

Conclusion


In 2025, successful market research means more than just collecting data. It involves cross-referencing sources , directly interviewing customers, and transforming raw figures into strategic and compelling arguments for investors, partners, and institutions.

As Bill Gates says:

"Your most dissatisfied customers are your greatest source of learning."

📚 Sources :

  • Bpifrance Création – Guides and market research (2024)

  • Tamwilcom – Innov Invest & Venture Capital Fund (2023)

  • YC Startup Library (Paul Graham Essays)

  • Station F – Entrepreneur guides (2024)

  • Partech Africa Reports (2023)

  • WHO, EMA, ANSM – Regulatory and pharmaceutical reports (2022-2024)

  • CcHub, Flat6Labs – Success stories (2023-2024)

 
 
 

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